Year 2014 came with the dissuading winds far from the Centre and Left wing in Indian domestic Political System. The Government fell from UPA directly onto the lap of Gujarat’s Chief Minister led NDA. The Strategic mind-set of the Former Gujarat CM and new Prime Minister became the highlights of the news when, to be specific, he invited Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his Oath taking Ceremony.
Since 2015, the days have been quite turbulent, starting from the Operation Rahat (evacuation of Indian Citizens from the disturbed West Asian nation-state Yemen). Prime Minister Modi breaking his leg to get India a new pair of wheels and put it in the topmost gear of Economic boom, yet the road was blocked on many instances. PM Modi though tried his best to carrying out the Strategic steps, started by his predecessors Mr.Bajpai then Mr.Singh, reinvigorating to the world view towards India. The internal politics, along with the International Politics, went through a number debates about the real intent of the policies declared from the steps of Red Fort on the eve of Independence Day from Look East to the recent references of the plight of Baluchis as well as the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. From the very first day in office he carried assessment studies of India’s stake in the global politics. May it be United Nations Security Counsel (UNSC) reforms or counterbalancing Communist China, most experts are impressed by his desired moves. But what are those stakes that India having worldwide? Where are those playgrounds? What are the plans laid down? Just to have a glimpse of those images i am laying out a short description which i will elaborate in my futures posts.
Before starting I would like to give a note of caution. I don’t claim to be a Person of high knowledge, or having a secret door to the Ministry of Home Affairs. All my posts will be based on my studies from different sources and with which i will be furthering my ‘Own Intellectual Assessment‘, and again i don’t claim to be an ultimate strategic analyst. Please don’t judge me ! Apart from that, i welcome you to counter my thoughts and elaborate your perception and ideas regarding the issues we will be discussing. You can comment below and i will catch up with you, also please mention your mail id while asking specific questions.
As it is the First post, I will just be laying down certain stakes that i think India holds region wise. I wont be going much deep into the Regions, unless it contains some importance.
Indian Stakes in the World Order
As we all know, with no doubts, the region is of utmost importance. Not only because the region has two Major powers I.e. United States and Canada. Stakes ranges from Economy, Security, Technology, Nuclear Security, Support for the UNSC claim and Diaspora.
United States which ,was an ardent sanction slapper, became dearest to the New Delhi. Though it major ally of the cold war times, i.e. Pakistan, was holding its ground until Al-Qaeda Chief was hunted down by the CIA and US marines in Abottabad. Since then, a major shift is being observed from the signing of Nuclear Pact, LEMOA and other economic and security cooperation.
With the new President coming in the White House, the prospectives of the continued relationship is bit early to say.
The Lower half of the American Continent have a close connection with India. Like India, South America had been under the severe domination of the imperialistic powers. We are closely linked with these nations economically through Bilateral as well as MERCOSUR (Economic Union of the South American Countries). Brazil is a strong contender of the UNSC seat but simultaneously supporting India’s candidature on reciprocity.
Indian industries, since last decade, have invested quite a significant amount in Latin America. Indian IT industries, as in India, are creating plenty of jobs. The region has vast fertile land with huge agricultural productivity.
Moreover, as Mexico is in North America but for the economy similarities with Southern half, will be dealt in this portion only.
Europe is one of the key economic power. With almost 28 countries tying themselves together. But with the referendum result of Bre-Exit, and rising of the rightist forces to power in France, Italy and other countries. India’s interest are in Security, Economic Gains, Technology including Strategic Technology and support for India’s candidature in UNSC. Recently India is trying hard to get the membership of the NSG, Hence European countries are a strategically crucial region.
One of the most underdeveloped regions of the world. Africa is continuously emerging as the Focal point. Being victims of the Imperialistic forces, also been the reason of the Great World Wars, have started to show development signs as the world’s investments are flowing in to the pot. The Northern part of the Continent has abundant oil which makes it strategically important. Also, the Horn of Africa is an important transit to the European market, thanks to the Suez Canal, however is also one of the most Piracy prone areas.
India has close relations with most of the coastal states like Mozambique, Kenya etc. The Indian Diaspora is also a leverage in the relationship. One of the aspect of the African continent’s importance lies with their support to India’s candidature in UNSC. African Union have 54 members which could have a huge influence in UNGA.
India’s engagement with the African countries will be taken separately.
Coming on to our own Region, which is quite vast in fact, will better to break up it in different sub-regions.
There’s no doubt that West Asia is the power house of the world. Supplying enormous amount of oil over the world. The economic prosperity of the region is obvious, but the region is in fact one of the most unstable in the world. The recent rise of the ISIS/ ISIL have dented the image of region even further and is now looked upon as supplier of extremism. West Asia housed many great civilisations like Roman Empire, Persian Empire (Sassanid Dynasty), Ottoman Empire etc. But the the region is facing new perils of extremism.
It is also the home of Indian diaspora which nearly crosses to about 7 million. Indian remittances tops the world list with more than USD 70 Billion. Recently, India took initiative to provide more amenities to the diaspora living in the region with plenty of other services.
A part of the former USSR bloc is one of the least explored regions owing to the remoteness and the cold war era. The region is coming into the limelight due to the Oil and Gas vastness and bordering with the European Union. China is trying to influence the region, which it can with its capabilities to invest, but the region has more historic relations and is comfortable with India. The Ladakh region of India houses decedents of the people from the Central Asia. India is continuously trying to harness the region by creating Win-Win conditions unlike the Chinese’s Zero-sum games.
South – East Asia:
Countries lying in the Indian Ocean and connecting with the Pacific Ocean have historic Religious and Cultural affinity with India. The Region is strategically important owing to the Chinese regional ambitions. These Countries are quite economically bind with Chinese Economy and now facing the garb of aggressive and assertive China over not just economics but even internal politics.
With the coming of the India’s Act East policy and now Look East policy, India is trying to take the leadership role in the region. Moreover the uncertainties surrounding the new US government change, China will try to increase their influence over the region which in fact would be threat to India’s security.
The recent developments in the South- China sea and East Sea have created new tensions in the region. The issue of China’s assertiveness over the possessions of the Spartly islands and others have many times brought the region close to skirmishes.
The region is the home of Three nuclear neighbours ( I am including China in the Region, though China is the centrepiece issue for India thats why I will be taking it up more in South Asia) i.e. India, China and Pakistan. China is way too ahead of India economically and India considers China more threatening than Pakistan owing to the reason that Pakistan’s Nuclear programme is supported by one and only China.
India had been into wars with the neighbours, once with China and plenty of times with Pakistan. Handling these two countries along with the widespread instability in Afghanistan has been real policy challenge for India. With recent Strategic change seen, as US is trying to leave region, China-Pakistan- Russia are forming axis to stabilise the region (India is currently in Wait and Watch situation).
Apart form this, Myanmar after many years got the democratic government but the issue of Rakhine State is still hanging over the neighbours. The only joyous relation is with the Bangladesh (from past 2-3 years) and we are deepening our bonds with it.
South Asia, with no doubt, is going to be the centre piece of my study and analysis as it will decide whether India emerges as a leader or not in this Millennium.
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